Meat represents one of the foods most commonly consumed by those following a common nutritional regime. Over time, its use has undergone profound changes due to various historical, economic and social factors, including the spread of different diets, such as vegan and vegetarian diets, which have taken more and more space in our society.
An interesting report published by OECD-FAO in Agricultural Outlook examines in detail market developments and medium-term projections for the world meat trade from now until 2031. The projections cover meat consumption, production, trade and prices.
With the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, we have witnessed a slight decrease in meat consumption; this would seem to have its hours counted and it is estimated that consumption will grow more and more until it returns to pre-pandemic levels. However, in high-income countries, where per capita consumption is already high, demand is expected to stabilise due to the high prevalence of diets that seek greater diversity in protein sources, while in low-income countries, both population and income growth will stimulate higher overall consumption, albeit from a much lower base per capita level. Another important factor concerns the recovery of meat consumption in China, which fell in per capita terms by more than 11% in 2020 and is expected to return to its usual standards by 2023. Global per capita meat consumption, once pork consumption in China recovers, is expected to stabilise at around 35.6 kg/year by 2031.
Globally, protein supply from poultry, pork, beef and sheep meat is expected to grow by 16%, 17%, 8% and 16% respectively by 2031. Global meat supply will expand to meet growing demand over the projection period, reaching 377 million tonnes (Mt) by 2031.
THE WHITE MEAT IS INCREASINGLY THE PROTAGONIST…
Healthy, ideal for a proper and balanced diet, rising in global consumption. We are talking about white meat, suitable for all ages as it has nutritional potential that is good for the body such as the richness of noble proteins (for example iron), as well as containing a low amount of fat. White meat will become more and more the protagonist thus strengthening, the consumption of poultry meat worldwide. In high-income countries, this trend is due to a growing preference for white meats that are cheaper and easier to prepare and are perceived as a healthier food choice. In low- and middle-income countries, the upward trend is also due to the lower price of poultry compared to other meat. Poultry meat is expected to make up 47% of the protein consumed from meat sources, followed by pork, sheep and cattle and will increase globally to 154 Mt in the projection period, accounting for almost half of the extra meat consumed. On a per capita basis, these growth rates of poultry consumption reflect the significant role it plays in the national diets of numerous populous developing countries, including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines and Vietnam.
BEEF, STABLE CONSUMPTION
Global beef consumption will increase to 76 Mt over the next ten years. Asia and the Pacific represent the region where per capita consumption of beef is expected to increase over the period considered. In China, the world’s second-largest consumer of beef in absolute terms, per capita consumption will increase by a further 10% by 2031, after increasing by 50% over the last decade.
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF PORK MEAT IS INCREASING…
Global pork consumption will increase to 129 Mt over the next ten years and will account for one-third of the total increase in meat consumption. Pork will remain the most consumed and demanded meat in the European Union in the next decade. In Latin America, favorable prices have designated pork and poultry meat as a favorite to meet the growing demand of the middle class. It is also expected that several Asian countries traditionally consuming pork, such as Korea and Vietnam, will increase consumption on a per capita basis.
For further and more detailed information, please visit the following link: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ab129327-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/ab129327-en#section-d1e24585
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